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World Cup 2010 - Statistical and Fundamental Anaysis

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Danny G - Football Odds Analyst and Professional Bettor


Dear Friend,
I am certain that if you have landed on this website and you're reading this letter right now, you have this one question on your mind:
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dun worry, I will go explain later How I make six-figure income for using that technique in soccer betting market.
World Cup 2010 is starts on coming Friday on 11th June 2010, I am very excited right now, and this is because I am figure out how "his/her" do this time. I am still remembering world cup 2006, this is because I am in deep loser on that year, and I am lost most of my bets that time. Nonetheless, my heart is still believe that I can make a six-figure income on soccer betting market, and the good thing is only working four hours a day from home.


I spent untold hours into researching how the behavior and interaction major bookmakers data and odd movement. How to spot the best profit signal?


Guess what? it is took me 3 years to research, test and fine tune how to spot the higher profit signal for major leagues and cups and my turning point is after September 2008.


I am found that the most important is using "Statistical and Fundamental" analysis when making soccer betting prediction. so what the heck is "Statistical and Fundamental" analysis? I will explain later...


then come back to current soccer betting market, While some twenty years ago, there was a list of great football teams, like Manchester United, Ajax, Barcelona and so on, that would always win the given game! Unless these teams played against each other it wasn’t that hard to predict the outcome of the game and bet on it.
Now days however the story seems quite different! You would see the first team in the English Premier League, play with the last in the table and loose or tie. Or you would see a team from League 2 play a team from League 1 and win by a difference of three goals. The recent example: China beat 1-0 France in Friendlies match....The unpredictable outcomes has made the job for the average football tipster a nightmare. Beating the bookies have become an impossible job or that’s what they say.


therefore, in order to stand a chance to beat bookie, then you should start using the soccer betting "weapon" available in the market. Statistical Analysis, what is statistical analysis? Basically you would want to do is look over
Team Form:
Always check the form and recent performances of the team.
Home and Away Records:
Check for home and away statistics. Some teams play better at home ground, some play better away.
Head-to-head:
Check the history between the two clubs because in soccer, more often than not, the history repeats in year after year.
Team Odd Form:
what do mean of that? This is refer to what is a recent win/tie/lose status of the team in bookmaker’s odd of 1x2 fixed odd and Asian handicap odd.


After the Statistical analysis, First they will give you the probability that each team has for a win. Second you will find out the current shape of the team and whether they have trouble at home or away
However Statistics do not guarantee you a correct soccer pick every time, but rather a positive prediction ratio over a long period of time.
so how? Now to make your tipster weapon even deadlier for the bookmakers throw in some Fundamental Analysis! What is fundamental analysis?
Team news:
Be sure always to check for injuries and suspensions. Which players are missing and how important are they. Check the records of the players who are replacing the injured players.
Motivation:
Check for the team motivation and how important it is for them to win the game. Do they really need points, are they interested in the domestic cup and so on.
Odd Movement:
after receiving the bet amount of punters, bookmaker will be adjusted accordingly, its main purpose is to adjust to a more balanced situation by injection to achieve the reduction of the risk of betting the company's own purpose. In another word, that odd movement is a tendency of bookmaker for that game. That data is a good value on fundamental analysis.


Once you have combined the Statistical and Fundamental analysis, you would notice a dramatic increase of your “winning” percentage.

So whether you are a casual gambler, a novice or experienced tipster, or a professional bettor, it always good to rely on the Statistical and Fundamental analysis!


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Free Football Tips: Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras on 26/05/2010

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Date: 26th May 2010
League: Brazil - Campeonato Brasileiro
Team: Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras
1x2 Average odd : 1.77 3.36 4.13
Asian Handicap odd: 0.85 0 : 1/2 1.05
Bookmaker odd Movement:

bet 365 :  1.80 3.50 4.00 > 1.80 3.60 4.33
Macau : 1.65 3.45 4.50 > 1.70 3.30 4.40
Ladbrokes : 1.80 3.30 3.75
WilliamHill : 1.80 3.30 4.33
VC : 1.95 3.25 3.50 > 1.72 3.50 4.33
Sao Paulo
Six Games Status: DDWLWW
Six Odds Status:  LWWLWW
Palmeiras
Six Games Status: DWLWDW
Six Odds Status:  WDLWWW
History Head to Head: Sao Paulo 4 win 5 draw 1 lose
Match Preview Summary :
Sao Paulo is back form recent with 2 strikes wins games, however Palmeiras is also good form recent with 2 wins 1 draw, but the team is not perform at away games. The current odd pattern "134" is giving some support to home team, but the Ladbrokes, WilliamHill and Macau is just open 3.30 draw odd, so the open draw is still under possibility level. I will going to bet 70 on Sao Paulo(-1/2) and bet 35 on 1x2 fixed draw to have a sure un lose this game.
Soccer Tips 4U Picks : Sao Paulo (-1/2) and 1x2 fixed draw 

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UEFA Champions League: Barcelona vs Arsenal on 6th April 2010

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Match Reports:
1. Barcelona is 7 consecutive wins at home sides and home winning rate is 84.2% last 19 games


2. Arsenal is 9 consecutive unbeaten games with 7 wins and 2 draws. But only 45% winning rate at away sides last 20 matches.


3. The average of 1x2 fixed odd is giving 1.35 4.84 7.90, home odd is strong support level, draw odd is still under unsafe zone, and away odd is no chance.


4. Asian handicap odd is Barcelona give 1 1/4 ball then changed to give 1 1/2 ball to Arsenal with 1.00 water rates. Chelsea is only can give 1/2 ball to Arsenal in the English Premier League


5.   WilliamHill is still remain the odd as 1.33 4.33 7.00, the draw odd is open lower than other major sportsbook
6. Arsenal is more key players’ injuries than Barcelona.


Match Summary: Arsenal is a disadvantage status in this game, 1x2 fixed home is 1st choice for betting mix parlay. The bookie is too obvious to open higher level odd in this game, and then Arsenal is higher chance to win on Asian handicap odd.   

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Free Football Betting Tips: CSKA Moscow vs Inter Milan on 06/04/2010

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League: UEFA Champions League
Date: 6th April 2010
Team: CSKA Moscow vs Inter Milan
Analysis Match Preview:
  The Europe Average odds are give 3.14 3.18 2.25, draw odd is under possibility level for current odd.1x2 fixed supports Inter Milan give 1/4 with 0.90 or 0.95 water fee level. Macau is opening 3.10 3.20 2.10 with away team give 1/4 with 0.89 water fee level. The fixed odd and Asian handicap odd are showing some support level to away team. The major bookie are opening in between 3.20 to 3.25 home and draw odd, this is not giving a clear tendency in this game. 
Football betting strategy: CSKA Moscow is lose 1-0 in 1st round at away sides, so semi finals door is still higher chance to open for them and they is having advantage from weather and home court this game. Inter Milan is only 30% winning rate at away sides last 10 matches. In summary, Inter Milan is having advantage in history achievement with 3 consecutive wins when versus CSKA Moscow and current Asian handicap's water rate is not showing the heavy boat to Inter Milan. So I personal think that Inter Milan is going higher chance to win the game and prefer to bet Inter Milan (-1/4) and 1x2 fixed draw
Soccer Tips 4U Prediction: Inter Milan (-1/4) and 1x2 fixed draw

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CSKA Moscow 0-1 Inter Milan Video Highlights on 06/04/2010

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Asian Bookie Football Betting Prediction and Match Preview: Real Madrid vs Atl. Madrid

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League: Spain Liga
Date: 28/03/2010
Team: Real Madrid vs Atl. Madrid
Last 6 Matches Match Preview and Prediction:

Real Madrid
Recent Bookmakers Status: WWDWWW
Recent Asian Bookie Status: WLLWLW

Atl. Madrid
Recent Bookmakers Status: DDWDLW
Recent Asian Bookie Status: DLWWLW

History Achievement: Real Madrid 6 win 4 draw 0 lose
Bookmakers Odd:  1.30 4.92 8.79
Asian Bookie Odd: Real Madrid vs Atl. Madrid  1.875 0 : 1 1/2 2.025
Confidence Prediction: Real Madrid (-1 1/2)
Summary Preview: Real Madrid is super outstanding performance at home sides with 14 strikes wins records so far this season, current team is only hope in liga game. Atl Madrid is stable form recent with 2 wins 3 draw 1 lose last 6 matches, however they need play europa league coming weekday with valencia. and That is only hope for them this season, since a current position is hard to qualify champion league next season. Asian handicap is open higher than previous data, which is full confident to home team can big win this game.

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Free Football Betting Tips: Barcelona vs Valencia on 14/03/2010

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League: Spanish La Liga
Date: 14th March 2010
Team: Barcelona vs Valencia
Analysis Match Preview:
  The Europe Average odds are give 1.38 4.43 7.45, home team is reasonable to win this game with current odd.1x2 fixed supports Barcelona give 1 1/4 with middle high water fee level. Macau is opening 1.32 4.60 7.30 with home team give 1 1/4 with 0.79 water fee level. Macau is showing confident to home team can big win this game. Major bookmakers are opening in between 1.30 to 1.36 home odd, so open home odd is a final tendency for bookmakers.
Football betting strategy: Barcelona is good form recent with 4 strikes wins at home side, however Valencia is dropping form recent with 2 strikes lose games in away sides. In summary, current odd is opening higher than standard level for the both team's level, this is showing support and confident level for bookmakers. So the best choice is follow bookmaker's tendency this game.   
Soccer Tips 4U Prediction: Barcelona (-1 1/4)

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Asian Bookie Football Betting Prediction and Match Preview: AC Milan vs Chievo

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League: Italian Serie A
Date: 14/03/2010
Team: AC Milan vs Chievo
Last 6 Matches Match Preview and Prediction:


AC Milan
Recent Bookmakers Status: LWWWDL
Recent Asian Bookie Status: LWWWWL

Chievo
Recent Bookmakers Status: DLLWWL
Recent Asian Bookie Status: LLLWWL

History Achievement: AC Milan 8 win 1 draw 1 lose
Bookmakers Odd:  1.38 4.22 8.19
Asian Bookie Odd: AC Milan vs Chievo 2.10 0 : 1 1/4 1.80
Betting & Prediction: AC Milan (-1 1/4)
Summary Preview: AC Milan is only hope in league games after kick out from UEFA champion league this season. Inter Milan lose on Friday, so AC Milan is higher desire to get three points from this game which is close the point on the top position. Bookmakers are showing confident and support to home team.

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Asian Bookie Football Betting Prediction and Match Preview: Leverkusen vs Hamburg

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League: German Bundesliga
Date: 14/03/2010
Team: Leverkusen vs Hamburg
Last 6 Matches Match Preview and Prediction:


Leverkusen
Recent Bookmakers Status: WDWDDL
Recent Asian Bookie Status: WLDWLL

Hamburg
Recent Bookmakers Status: WDLLWW
Recent Asian Bookie Status: WLLWDW

History Achievement: Leverkusen 2 win 3 draw 5 lose
Bookmakers Odd:  2.05 3.25 3.45
Asian Bookie Odd: Leverkusen vs Hamburg 1.85 0 : 1/4 2.05
Betting & Prediction: Hamburg (1/4)
Summary Preview: Leverkusen is dropping performance recent and 1st lose last game after 24 consecutive unbeaten records. Hamburg is unstable form with 2 strikes lose in away sides. However bookmakers are not showing confident to home team with current odd.

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